Will Adamawa guber election be free, fair?
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- Category: Inside politics
- Written by Abbas Jimoh
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Recent events and the charged atmosphere, among other contending issues, in Adamawa State are signs of things to come in the state’s governorship election whose date has had to be fixed three times.
Due to the previous security situation in Adamawa State, the governorship election earlier scheduled for January 14, was shifted to today and again to February 11, by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), after the Supreme Court judgement on the tenure of five governors with incumbent Governor Murtala Nyako trying to secure his seat against the onslaught of other contestants like Gen. Buba Marwa of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and Alhaji Usman Ahmed of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), among others.The electorates like other Nigerians, have expectations to be fulfilled and anxiety to overcome.
Political parties are required to develop and publish manifestoes reflecting the policies, programmes and strategies that they will adopt while in governance. Since 1999, and due to a combination of factors, politicians rarely campaigned on the basis of manifestoes. Instead, the frequent campaign rallies organized by political parties and politicians were characterized by music, dancing and sloganeering.
In an opinion poll conducted by the Alliance for Credible Elections (ACE-Nigeria), majority of the electorate said they expect the coming election to be free and fair.
Their expectation is hinged on the success of the April 2011 elections in the state, with a very large majority (83.1 per cent), saying the April 2011 general elections during which the president, national and state legislators were elected were free and fair; 39.4 percent reporting it as very free and fair and 43.7 percent submitting it was somewhat free and fair.
When the respondents were asked if they think the gubernatorial election would be free and fair, nearly nine out of ten (85.1) per cent said it would be free and fair; 46.7 per cent said it would be very free and fair; 38.4 per cent reported that it would be somewhat free and fair while 14.9 per cent did not think it would be free and fair at all.
The poll which also sought to examine the extent to which electorates in Adamawa state were provided with well articulated programmes and strategies by the parties and politicians that will contest the gubernatorial election revealed negative results.
It also sought the perception of the electorate on political campaign, service delivery under the incumbent Nyako administration, preparedness of security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the conduct of the gubernatorial election and citizens’ expectation of the administration that will emerge from the election.
Adamawa state which was created in 1991 during the Gen. Ibrahim Babangida military regime from part of old Gongola State, has Yola as the capital with four administrative divisions namely Adamawa, Ganye, Mubi and Numan apart from the 21 local governments.
The basic methodology employed for data collection was in-home, face-to-face personal interview using a clustered, stratified, multi-stage random selection procedure in order to achieve a representative sample.
The report said respondents for this study were adult males and females aged from eighteen years and older. They were also expected to have stayed in the selected household for a period of not less than six months. Non-citizens of Nigeria and people living in institutionalized settings were not part of the respondents of the poll conducted between January 4, 2012 and January 16, 2012.
“a total of 263 respondents from all the 21 LGAs in Adamawa state were interviewed. In each of the 21 LGAs, 60-62 respondents were random selected and interviewed,” the report said.
It shows that most of the respondents were registered for the gubernatorial election and were generally enthusiastic about the election and planned to vote during.
Forty-eight percent of respondents said they knew the names of all the candidates; while 49.8 percent said they knew the names of some and 2.1 percent did not know the name of any of the candidates.
Respondents identified infrastructure development 32.9 percent, health 47.0 percent, security 37.2 percent, agriculture 30.2 percent, education 46.2 percent, electoral reforms 7.4 percent, gender issues 6.5 percent, employment 42.5 percent and environmental sanitation 10.1 percent among others.
Asked if the manifestoes stated the strategies for the implementation of the policies which that the candidates pledged to introduce and implement; 33.6 percent said the manifestoes contained strategies; 44.5 percent said they contained strategies to an extent, while 10.7 percent said they did not contain any implementation strategy.
When respondents were asked whether there were campaigns by politicians who may be acting for either candidates or parties in the community, more than half 53.4 percent of the respondents said politicians were in the community a few times to campaign; 33.4 percent said politicians had been campaigning vigorously in the area and 9.2 percent said there were no campaigns in the area.
They were also asked if the gubernatorial candidates had visited the community to campaign, two-fifths (53.3 percent ) said one or two candidates were in the community; 32.6 percent said many of the candidates were in their communities to campaign and a quarter (9.0 percent) posited that no gubernatorial candidate had visited their communities to campaign.
Respondents equally considered INEC and the security agencies to be prepared for the conduct of the election, with 71.1 percent saying INEC was prepared, 34.0 percent said INEC was well prepared and 37.1 percent said it was prepared. Similarly, 69.3 percent said security agencies were prepared, 31.3 percent voted for well prepared and 37.1 percent said prepared.
Notwithstanding the general perception of poor service delivery by the incumbent Murtala Nyako administration, or perhaps because of it, 62.7 percent said the succeeding government will perform better; 12.5 percent said there will be no difference; 11.1 percent reported that it will perform worse than the present government and 13.7 percent said they did not know whether the next government will perform better or worse.
When respondents were also asked to identify the area of service that the next administration should pay the greatest attention, health took the lion share of 26.3 percent, followed by education 19.0 percent, infrastructural development 18.3 percent, security 15.5 percent, employment 9.3 percent, agriculture 8.3 percent and electoral reforms 0.6 percent.
The report shows that more than seven out of ten (72.9 percent) respondents identified education, employment, infrastructural development and health care as areas that should be given priority attention by the new government in the state.
On their satisfaction with democracy in the state since the return to civil rule in 1999; 32.4 percent said they were very satisfied, 38.3 percent were just somewhat satisfied.
Overall, 70.7 percent expressed a certain level of satisfaction with the performance of the successive civilian governments, 25.6 percent were dissatisfied with the performance of these governments (17.4 percent dissatisfied and 8.2 percent very dissatisfied), while 3.8 percent were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied.
As all stakeholders prepare for the election, respondents only concern is losers not wanting to take the loss and the arrogant winners who might be winner takes all.
Articles
Will Adamawa guber election be free, fair?
Category: Inside politics Written by Abbas Jimoh Hits: 6153
Recent events and the charged atmosphere, among other contending issues, in Adamawa State are signs of things to come in the state’s governorship election whose date has had to be fixed three times.
Due to the previous security situation in Adamawa State, the governorship election earlier scheduled for January 14, was shifted to today and again to February 11, by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), after the Supreme Court judgement on the tenure of five governors with incumbent Governor Murtala Nyako trying to secure his seat against the onslaught of other contestants like Gen. Buba Marwa of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and Alhaji Usman Ahmed of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), among others.The electorates like other Nigerians, have expectations to be fulfilled and anxiety to overcome.
Political parties are required to develop and publish manifestoes reflecting the policies, programmes and strategies that they will adopt while in governance. Since 1999, and due to a combination of factors, politicians rarely campaigned on the basis of manifestoes. Instead, the frequent campaign rallies organized by political parties and politicians were characterized by music, dancing and sloganeering.
In an opinion poll conducted by the Alliance for Credible Elections (ACE-Nigeria), majority of the electorate said they expect the coming election to be free and fair.
Their expectation is hinged on the success of the April 2011 elections in the state, with a very large majority (83.1 per cent), saying the April 2011 general elections during which the president, national and state legislators were elected were free and fair; 39.4 percent reporting it as very free and fair and 43.7 percent submitting it was somewhat free and fair.
When the respondents were asked if they think the gubernatorial election would be free and fair, nearly nine out of ten (85.1) per cent said it would be free and fair; 46.7 per cent said it would be very free and fair; 38.4 per cent reported that it would be somewhat free and fair while 14.9 per cent did not think it would be free and fair at all.
The poll which also sought to examine the extent to which electorates in Adamawa state were provided with well articulated programmes and strategies by the parties and politicians that will contest the gubernatorial election revealed negative results.
It also sought the perception of the electorate on political campaign, service delivery under the incumbent Nyako administration, preparedness of security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the conduct of the gubernatorial election and citizens’ expectation of the administration that will emerge from the election.
Adamawa state which was created in 1991 during the Gen. Ibrahim Babangida military regime from part of old Gongola State, has Yola as the capital with four administrative divisions namely Adamawa, Ganye, Mubi and Numan apart from the 21 local governments.
The basic methodology employed for data collection was in-home, face-to-face personal interview using a clustered, stratified, multi-stage random selection procedure in order to achieve a representative sample.
The report said respondents for this study were adult males and females aged from eighteen years and older. They were also expected to have stayed in the selected household for a period of not less than six months. Non-citizens of Nigeria and people living in institutionalized settings were not part of the respondents of the poll conducted between January 4, 2012 and January 16, 2012.
“a total of 263 respondents from all the 21 LGAs in Adamawa state were interviewed. In each of the 21 LGAs, 60-62 respondents were random selected and interviewed,” the report said.
It shows that most of the respondents were registered for the gubernatorial election and were generally enthusiastic about the election and planned to vote during.
Forty-eight percent of respondents said they knew the names of all the candidates; while 49.8 percent said they knew the names of some and 2.1 percent did not know the name of any of the candidates.
Respondents identified infrastructure development 32.9 percent, health 47.0 percent, security 37.2 percent, agriculture 30.2 percent, education 46.2 percent, electoral reforms 7.4 percent, gender issues 6.5 percent, employment 42.5 percent and environmental sanitation 10.1 percent among others.
Asked if the manifestoes stated the strategies for the implementation of the policies which that the candidates pledged to introduce and implement; 33.6 percent said the manifestoes contained strategies; 44.5 percent said they contained strategies to an extent, while 10.7 percent said they did not contain any implementation strategy.
When respondents were asked whether there were campaigns by politicians who may be acting for either candidates or parties in the community, more than half 53.4 percent of the respondents said politicians were in the community a few times to campaign; 33.4 percent said politicians had been campaigning vigorously in the area and 9.2 percent said there were no campaigns in the area.
They were also asked if the gubernatorial candidates had visited the community to campaign, two-fifths (53.3 percent ) said one or two candidates were in the community; 32.6 percent said many of the candidates were in their communities to campaign and a quarter (9.0 percent) posited that no gubernatorial candidate had visited their communities to campaign.
Respondents equally considered INEC and the security agencies to be prepared for the conduct of the election, with 71.1 percent saying INEC was prepared, 34.0 percent said INEC was well prepared and 37.1 percent said it was prepared. Similarly, 69.3 percent said security agencies were prepared, 31.3 percent voted for well prepared and 37.1 percent said prepared.
Notwithstanding the general perception of poor service delivery by the incumbent Murtala Nyako administration, or perhaps because of it, 62.7 percent said the succeeding government will perform better; 12.5 percent said there will be no difference; 11.1 percent reported that it will perform worse than the present government and 13.7 percent said they did not know whether the next government will perform better or worse.
When respondents were also asked to identify the area of service that the next administration should pay the greatest attention, health took the lion share of 26.3 percent, followed by education 19.0 percent, infrastructural development 18.3 percent, security 15.5 percent, employment 9.3 percent, agriculture 8.3 percent and electoral reforms 0.6 percent.
The report shows that more than seven out of ten (72.9 percent) respondents identified education, employment, infrastructural development and health care as areas that should be given priority attention by the new government in the state.
On their satisfaction with democracy in the state since the return to civil rule in 1999; 32.4 percent said they were very satisfied, 38.3 percent were just somewhat satisfied.
Overall, 70.7 percent expressed a certain level of satisfaction with the performance of the successive civilian governments, 25.6 percent were dissatisfied with the performance of these governments (17.4 percent dissatisfied and 8.2 percent very dissatisfied), while 3.8 percent were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied.
As all stakeholders prepare for the election, respondents only concern is losers not wanting to take the loss and the arrogant winners who might be winner takes all.